>>> HELLO, EVERYONE, AND WELCOME TO "AMANPOUR & COMPANY. "

HERE'S WHAT'S COMING UP.

>> IT LOOKS VERY MUCH AS IF CALIFORNIANS REALLY WILL HAVE THE CHANCE TO VOTE FOR CHANGE IN NOVEMBER.

>> A CRUCIAL NIGHT OF PRIMARY ELECTIONS ACROSS SIX U. S. STATES AS THE MIDTERM RACE BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE.

POLITICO'S SENIOR COLUMNIST JONATHAN MARTIN JOINS US TO BREAK IT ALL DOWN.

> >> THEN -- >> THIS JULY 4th WE WILL MARK 2 1/2 CENTURIES OF LIBERTY AND TRIUMPH, PROGRESS AND FREEDOM, IN THE MOST INCREDIBLE AND EXCEPTIONAL NATION EVER TO EXIST ON THE FACE OF THE EARTH.

>> BUT WITH NATIONAL PRIDE NEAR RECORD LOWS ARE AMERICANS UP FOR CELEBRATING?

I SPEAK TO HISTORIAN DOMINIC ERDOZAIN, AUTHOR OF "TO LOVE A COUNTRY" ABOUT THE COMPLICATED HISTORY OF PATRIOTISM AND ITS UNCERTAIN FUTURE.

> >> ALSO AHEAD -- >> WE HAVE ALREADY LOST THIS WAR.

IT'S JUST A QUESTION OF WHEN DO WE ACKNOWLEDGE IT.

>> STALLED NEGOTIATIONS AND NEW ESCALATIONS BETWEEN THE U. S. AND IRAN.

HAS TRUMP RUN OUT OF CARDS TO PLAY?

FOREIGN POLICY EXPERT ROBERT KAGAN TELLS WALTER ISAACSON WHY HE BELIEVES AMERICA IS LOSING LEVERAGE AND HOW IT COULD CHANGE THE WORLD ORDER.

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>> "AMANPOUR & COMPANY" IS MADE POSSIBLE BY THE ANDERSON FAMILY ENDOWMENT.

JIM ATTWOOD AND LESLIE WILLIAMS.

CANDACE KING WEIR.

THE SYLVIA A. AND SIMON B. POYTA PROGRAMMING ENDOWMENT TO FIGHT ANTISEMITISM.

THE STRAUS FAMILY FOUNDATION.

THE PETER G. PETERSON AND JOAN GANZ COONEY FUND.

CHARLES ROSENBLUM.

MONIQUE SCHOEN WARSHAW.

KOO AND PATRICIA YUEN, COMMITTED TO BRIDGING CULTURAL DIFFERENCES IN OUR COMMUNITIES.

BARBARA HOPE ZUCKERBERG.

AND BY CONTRIBUTIONS TO YOUR PBS STATION FROM VIEWERS LIKE YOU.

THANK YOU.

> >> WITH WELCOME TO THE PROGRAM, EVERYONE.

I'M BIANNA GOLODRYGA IN NEW YORK SITTING IN FOR CHRISTIANE AMANPOUR.

A MIXED PICTURE IS EMERGING FROM PRIMARY ELECTIONS ACROSS AMERICA WITH MAJOR IMPLICATIONS FOR THE POLITICAL FIGHT AHEAD.

IT'S A CLIFFHANGER IN CALIFORNIA IN THE CLOSELY WATCHED RACE FOR THE STATE'S NEXT GOVERNOR.

REPUBLICAN STEVE HILTON CURRENTLY LEADS THE COUNT, FOLLOWED BY DEMOCRAT XAVIER BECERRA AND TOM STEYER WITH THE TOP TWO SET TO FACE OFF IN NOVEMBER.

IN IOWA REPUBLICAN VOTERS DELIVERED A SHOCK DEFEAT TO A TRUMP-ENDORSED CANDIDATE FOR GOVERNOR WHILE IN A SENATE RACE THE DEMOCRATIC ESTABLISHMENT PREVAILED OVER A PROGRESSIVE CHALLENGER.

ALL OF THIS COMES AT A CRUCIAL MOMENT FOR DEMOCRATS.

PRESIDENT TRUMP IS FACING RECORD LOW APPROVAL RATINGS WHILE CLAIMING HE DOESN'T CARE ABOUT THE MIDTERMS.

BUT ARE THE DEMOCRATS DOING ALL THEY CAN TO BOLSTER THEIR CHANCES OF RECAPTURING THE HOUSE AND POSSIBLY EVEN THE SENATE?

TO DIG INTO ALL OF THIS I'M JOINED BY JONATHAN MARTIN.

HE'S A SENIOR POLITICAL COLUMNIST AT POLITICO.

JOINING ME FROM MINNESOTA.

JONATHAN, GREAT TO HAVE YOU ON THE PROGRAM.

SO LET'S START WITH CALIFORNIA.

WE KNOW VOTES ARE STILL BEING COUNTED THERE.

>> SURE.

>> DEEP BLUE STATE.

DEEP BLUE CITY OF LOS ANGELES.

AND YET REPUBLICANS RAN STRONG ON VOTER ANGER OVER THE COST OF LIVING, HOMELESSNESS, THE WILDFIRE RESPONSE.

TRUMP-BACKED STEVE HILTON IS THE TOP -- IS IN THE TOP TWO FOR GOVERNOR.

REALITY TV SPENCER --STAR SPENCER PRATT IS FIGHTING FOR NUMBER TWO FOR THE L. A. MAYOR'S RACE.

WHAT DOES A SHOWING THIS STRONG SAY ABOUT THE STATE OF THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY IN CALIFORNIA PARTICULARLY WHERE DEMOCRATS RUN EVERYTHING?

>> WELL, THERE'S A BACKLASH TO THE PARTY IN POWER WHEN VOTERS ARE UPSET ABOUT THE STATUS QUO.

AND I THINK WE'RE SEEING THAT IN CALIFORNIA.

WE'RE SEEING THAT NATIONWIDE.

CALIFORNIANS HAVE BEEN FRUSTRATED WITH THE COST OF LIVING, WITH WILDFIRES, OBVIOUSLY THE PRICE AT THE PUMP, WHICH HAS GOTTEN EVEN HIGHER.

AND IT WAS ALREADY HIGH.

AND I THINK THERE'S AN ELEMENT OF THE VOTE CENTER RIGHT, EVEN A LITTLE CENTER LEFT THAT'S WILLING TO TAKE A CHANCE ON DIFFERENT CANDIDATES.

CANDIDATES WHO ARE UNCONVENTIONAL LIKE THIS FELLOW PRATT RUNNING FOR MAYOR IN L. A. AND OBVIOUSLY HILTON.

YOU CAN HEAR THAT ACCENT.

OBVIOUSLY GREW UP IN THE UK.

I JUST THINK IT'S A DIFFERENT STORY WHEN YOU GET TO THE FALL.

DON'T FORGET, CALIFORNIA HAS THIS TOP TWO SYSTEM IN WHICH EVERYBODY RUNS ON THE SAME BALLOT IN JUNE, THEN IN THE FALL IT'S THE TOP TWO VOTE GETTERS.

I THINK IN THE FALL CALIFORNIA'S DEEP BLUE NATURE, ESPECIALLY AT A MOMENT WHEN TRUMP IS SO UNPOPULAR, WILL REVERT TO FORM AND THEY'LL ELECT DEMOCRATS AS GOVERNOR AND MAYOR.

BUT THERE'S DEFINITELY A SENSE OF FRUSTRATION AMONG VOTERS EVERYWHERE.

BUT CERTAINLY IN CALIFORNIA BECAUSE OF THE SORT OF UNIQUE NATURE OF SOME OF THE CHALLENGES IN CALIFORNIA THESE DAYS.

>> YEAH.

AND DEMOCRATS OUTNUMBER REPUBLICANS 2- 1 IN CALIFORNIA.

BUT AS YOU NOTED SPENCER PRATT, HE'S BEEN GETTING A LOT OF PRAISE FOR HOW HE'S CAMPAIGNED THUS FAR, NOT ONLY ON THE ISSUES BUT HIS USE OF SOCIAL MEDIA, AI IN SOME OF HIS ADS.

>> YEAH.

>> I'M CURIOUS, GIVEN THE LOW APPROVAL RATINGS WE SEE NATIONWIDE FOR PRESIDENT TRUMP, THESE ARE CANDIDATES FROM HILTON TO PRATT THAT HE'S ENDORSED.

HOW ARE THEY EMBRACING THAT IF AT ALL?

>> NOT TOO MUCH.

BECAUSE THEY KNOW THAT THE TRUMP ENDORSEMENT IN A GENERAL ELECTION IS THE KISS OF DEATH AND THEY'RE NOT GOING TO WANT TO EMBRACE THAT.

THIS IS THE CHALLENGE WITH REPUBLICANS NATIONALLY, THOUGH, IS THAT YOU KNOW, AS THE OLD SAYING GOES YOU LOSE THE GENERAL ELECTION TO WIN THE PRIMARY.

THEY'VE GOT TO HAVE TRUMP ON THEIR SIDE OR OFTENTIMES THEY DO TO GET THROUGH A PRIMARY BUT ONCE YOU'RE IN THE GENERAL ELECTION CERTAINLY IN BLUE AMERICA BUT IN PURPLE AMERICA TOO IT'S A HUGE LIABILITY.

AND SO SPENCER PRATT IS NOT GOING TO WANT TO HAVE TRUMP NEXT TO HIS NAME THIS FALL.

BUT CERTAINLY KAREN BASS, THE MAYOR OF L. A. , IS GOING TO MAKE THAT A CENTRAL CASE AGAINST HIM.

AND ASSUMING THAT THE DEEP BLUE NATURE OF L. A. WILL REVERT TO FORM IN NOVEMBER.

BUT I'VE GOT TO SAY THAT CLEARLY CALIFORNIANS, ANGELENOS WANT SOME KIND OF CHANGE.

THERE'S DEEP FRUSTRATION WITH ESTABLISHMENT POLITICIANS.

WE'RE SEEING THAT EVERYWHERE.

AND WE SAW IT LAST NIGHT, BY THE WAY, IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY TOO.

>> RIGHT.

AND KAREN BASS WAS NEVER REALLY ABLE TO GAIN MOMENTUM OR TRUST FROM SO MANY OF THOSE RESIDENTS IN THE CITY WHEN SHE WAS OUT OF THE COUNTRY AT THE HEIGHT OF THOSE WILDFIRES.

YOU MENTIONED THE JUNGLE PRIMARY.

THAT IS ALL OF THE CANDIDATES REALLY SHARING ONE BALLOT IN CALIFORNIA THEN THE TOP TWO ADVANCE.

EVEN IF THEY HAPPEN TO BE IN THE SAME PARTY.

DEMOCRATS BRIEFLY FEARED PERHAPS THERE WOULD BE A SCENARIO WHERE YOU HAVE TWO REPUBLICANS IN A LOCKOUT FOR THE GOVERNOR'S RACE.

NOW THERE'S AN UNDO THE TOP TWO REPEAL EFFORT FOR 2028.

IS THE SYSTEM GENUINELY BROKEN OR IS THIS A SIGN OF PERHAPS SOME WEAKNESS OR CONCERN AMONG DEMOCRATS ABOUT THEIR STANDING WITH THESE PARTICULAR CANDIDATES IN THE UPCOMING ELECTION?

>> OH, I THINK YOU HAD A YEAR WHERE THE DEMOCRATS COULDN'T FIND A TOP TIER NOMINEE FOR GOVERNOR OF CALIFORNIA.

IT WASN'T FOR A LACK OF LOOKING.

LORD KNOWS THEY WENT THROUGH KAMALA HARRIS, ALEX PADILLA, ROB BONTA WHO'S THE ATTORNEY GENERAL OUT THERE, AND GOT TO ABOUT THEIR FIFTH OPTION, WHICH IS XAVIER BECERRA.

THIS IS MORE REFLECTIVE OF THE END OF A PERIOD OF REALLY BIG FIGURES.

SCHWARZENEGGER, JERRY BROWN, GAVIN NEWSOM, WHO ARE THE GOVERNOR OF THE BIGGEST STATE IN THE COUNTRY.

AND DEMOCRATS COULDN'T FIND SOMEBODY OF THAT STATURE TO RUN THIS TIME, AND SO THEY'RE LEFT WITH SOMEBODY WHO'S JUST NOT A TOP TIER CANDIDATE FRANKLY.

INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH, THOUGH, THE TOP TWO SYSTEM IS SOMETHING SCHWARZENEGGER WAS PASSIONATE ABOUT.

BECAUSE THE WHOLE POINT OF THE TOP TWO, THE JUNGLE PRIMARY, IS YOU WANT TO INCENTIVIZE PEOPLE IN BOTH PARTIES TO RUN TOWARD THE CENTER AND FORGE COALITIONS THAT AREN'T JUST AT THE FLANKS, RIGHT?

SO THE CALIFORNIA MODEL WAS SEEN AS A REFORM MODEL NATIONALLY.

AND I THINK YOU COULD SEE MORE OF THAT GOING FORWARD NATIONALLY BECAUSE EVERY PEOPLE ARE TRYING TO FIGURE OUT HOW DO WE INCENTIVIZE THE VOTERS TO REWARD PEOPLE RUNNING TOWARD THE CENTER AND THAT'S REALLY HARD TO DO IN A CLOSED PRIMARY SYSTEM.

AND MAYBE WE CAN DO THAT IF YOU HAVE THIS TOP TWO SYSTEM WHERE EVERYBODY'S ON THE BALLOT THE SAME DAY.

>> YEAH, INSTEAD OF GRAVITATING AS WE'VE SEEN IN SO MANY OF THESE PRIMARIES TO THE EXTREMES, EITHER THE RIGHT OR THE LEFT.

YOU MENTIONED GAVIN NEWSOM IS TERM LIMITED OUT.

ALSO NANCY PELOSI IS RETIRING.

IT REALLY DOES SEEM LIKE THE FADING OF THE OLD GUARD IN CALIFORNIA.

AND EVEN FOR SAN FRANCISCO IN PARTICULAR.

BUT WE KNOW THAT CALIFORNIA DEMOCRATS REDREW THE CONGRESSIONAL MAP LAST YEAR TO ADD SEATS FLIPPING DISTRICTS LIKE SAN DIEGO'S AREA 48 WHERE DARRELL ISSA OPTED NOT TO RUN.

BASED ON TUESDAY'S RESULTS, ON LAST NIGHT'S RESULTS, WAS THAT A GAMBLE THAT PAID OFF?

>> YEAH.

THEY'RE GOING TO ADD A COUPLE OF MORE SEATS, DEMOCRATS WILL.

BUT IT MAY NOT BE THE HAUL THAT THEY ORIGINALLY HOPED FOR.

I DON'T WANT TO GET TOO FAR IN THE WEEDS.

BUT CALIFORNIA FAMOUSLY TAKES A LONG TIME TO COUNT ITS BALLOTS AND THERE'S A LOT OF MAIL-IN BALLOTS.

SO THIS IS GOING TO BE DAYS UNTIL WE KNOW THE FINAL RESULTS.

BUT THERE ARE A COUPLE OF HOUSE SEATS IN WHICH DEMOCRATS WERE HOPING TO PICK UP WITH THE REDRAW THAT YOU MAY ACTUALLY GET TWO REPUBLICANS, MAY GET THROUGH INTO THE FALL, WHICH OBVIOUSLY WOULD MEAN BACKFIRE.

IT'S A COMPLICATED SYSTEM, AND IT'S POSSIBLE WHEN THE VOTES REALLY FRACTURED THAT TWO PEOPLE OF ONE PARTY CAN GET THROUGH IN THE FALL AND OBVIOUSLY THAT WAS THE DEMOCRATIC FEAR IN GOVERNOR.

THAT'S NOT GOING TO HAPPEN.

BUT IT COULD HAPPEN AS YOU ALLUDE TO IN SOME OF THESE HOUSE RACES.

>> WE TALKED ABOUT THE IMPACT OF THE TRUMP FACTOR IN TERMS OF WHO HE'S ENDORSED.

IT'S A MIXED BAG DEPENDING ON THE RACE AND OBVIOUSLY PRIMARY IN CERTAIN AREAS AND PARTS OF THE COUNTRY TRUMP JUST THIS WEEK WAS BOASTING OF A 38-0 ENDORSEMENT RECORD, HAVING FORCED OUT TWO SITTING SENATORS AND THEN THOMAS MASSIE, ALL OF WHOM HE SAID WERE NOT LOYAL ENOUGH.

THEN HIS PICK, HOWEVER, FRIDAY FOR GOVERNOR OF IOWA, RANDY FEENSTRA, HAD NARROWLY LOST TO A MAHA-BACKED OUTSIDER.

HOW MUCH SHOULD WE READ INTO THIS?

>> I THINK THESE RESULTS LAST NIGHT IN IOWA AND SOUTH DAKOTA ARE ACTUALLY MORE REVEALING THAN ANYTHING ELSE SO FAR THAT WE'VE SEEN FROM THE TUESDAY ELECTIONS FOR THIS REASON.

IN BOTH STATES YOU HAD A SIT MEMBER OF THE HOUSE, RANDY FEENSTRA IN IOWA AND DUSTY JOHNSON IN SOUTH DAKOTA, WHO LOST THEIR PRIMARIES FOR GOVERNOR.

NOW, IN THE CASE OF FEENSTRA AS YOU ALLUDE TO, BIANNA, TRUMP ENDORSED HIM.

NOW, TRUMP ENDORSED TOO LATE, IT WASN'T ENOUGH TO GET IN THE BLOODSTREAM.

BUT STILL, TRUMP WAS FOR RANDY FEENSTRA, A SITTING MEMBER OF THE HOUSE, AND FEENSTRA COULDN'T WIN THE PRIMARY.

LOST TO AN WHO HAD NEVER BEEN ELECTED BEFORE.

SIMILARLY ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER IN SOUTH DAKOTA YOU'VE GOT A SITUATION WHERE THE SITTING GOVERNOR AND THE HOUSE MEMBER AT LARGE ARE BOTH GOING TO BE OUTPOLLED BY ANOTHER OUTSIDER WHO'S NEVER BEEN ELECTED TO ANYTHING BEFORE.

THAT TELLS ME AND THE REPUBLICAN PARTY THERE'S STILL A LOT OF ENERGY FOR OUTSIDERS, FOLKS WHO DO NOT COME FROM THE ELECTED CLASS OF POLITICIANS, AND CERTAINLY AREN'T PART OF THE CONGRESS TODAY.

HAVING A REPRESENTATIVE OR SENATOR IN FRONT OF YOUR NAME IF YOU'RE REPUBLICAN CLEARLY IS NOW A LIABILITY IN THIS PRIMARY SEASON.

>> OKAY, SPEAKING OF THE OUTSIDERS THEME I HAVE TO ASK YOU ABOUT BILL PULTE.

DONALD TRUMP NOMINATED HIM AS THE FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE AGENCY CHIEF.

FOR THOSE WHO MIGHT SAY THAT NAME SOUNDS FAMILIAR BUT THEY ASSOCIATE IT MORE WITH MORTGAGE RATES.

DONALD TRUMP APPOINTED HIM -- >> YES.

>> -- AS ACTING DNI.

NOT ANY EXPERIENCE IN THE INTELLIGENCE WORLD.

CHUCK SCHUMER CALLED HIM A PARTISAN THUG.

THIS MAY NOT BE AS SURPRISING AS SOME OF THE UNCOMFORTABLE RESPONSES I WOULD SAY FROM ESTABLISHMENT REPUBLICANS WHO ARE NOW SEEING SORT OF A THEME OF THE PRESIDENT MAKING CHOICES THAT THEY DON'T AGREE WITH, THAT THEY DON'T THINK BENEFIT THE PARTY OR THE COUNTRY.

FIRST THERE WAS THE ENDORSEMENT OF KEN PAXTON FOR SENATE IN TEXAS.

THIS IS A DIFFERENT TYPE OF PICK.

BUT I'M JUST WONDERING HOW MUCH PUSHBACK YOU THINK THIS IS GOING TO GET FROM THE REPUBLICAN PARTY ITSELF.

>> IT'S ALREADY GETTING SOME.

YOU CAN SEE IT IN THE BODY LANGUAGE FROM JOHN THUNE AS HE'S ADDRESSING THE CAMERAS THIS WEEK ON CAPITOL HILL.

AND AS YOU POINT OUT IT'S ONE MORE BRICK IN THE LOAD.

IT'S SO HUMILIATING FOR THESE SENATORS, ESPECIALLY THE KIND OF TRADITIONAL PRETRUMP SENATORS, BIANNA.

WHETHER IT'S TARGETING JOHN CORNYN OR BILL CASSIDY, WHETHER OR NOT IT'S THE WEAPONIZATION FUND, NOW IT'S NAMING YOUR HOUSING GUY WHO'S REALLY YOUR POLITICAL ENFORCER, WHO'S TRYING TO GO AFTER YOUR ENEMIES REAL AND PERCEIVED AS THE HEAD OF NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE?

THESE MEMBERS KNOW THAT THIS IS NOT RIGHT.

THEY'RE DEEPLY UNCOMFORTABLE WITH IT.

BUT LOOK, A LOT OF THEIR VOTERS DON'T CARE OR THEY LIKE IT.

SO IT'S AWKWARD.

BECAUSE THEY DON'T WANT TO BE OPENLY CRITICAL OF TRUMP BUT AT THE SAME TIME THEY'RE NOT COMFORTABLE WITH THIS.

SO THERE HAS BEEN PUSHBACK.

AND BY THE WAY, THE PUSHBACK ON THE WEAPONIZATION FUND, BIANNA, GOT THROUGH TO TRUMP.

HE DROPPED THE IDEA.

SO WE'LL SEE IF PULTE SURVIVES.

I'LL SAY THIS.

I DON'T THINK HE CAN GET CONFIRMED AS THE PERMANENT HEAD OF NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE.

HE CAN BE ACTING.

HE CAN BE TEMPORARY.

THE VOTES I DON'T THINK ARE THERE IN TODAY'S SENATE GIVEN THE FRUSTRATION WITH TRUMP IN HIS OWN PARTY TO CONFIRM THIS MAN TO BE THE FULL DNI.

>> YEAH, WE'LL SEE HOW FAR PRESIDENT TRUMP IS WILLING TO GO TO FIGHT TO KEEP HIM IN THIS POSITION, AT LEAST AN ACTING POSITION.

WHICH COULD BE FOR MONTHS TO COME.

OVERALL, JONATHAN, FOR THE DEMOCRATS YOU COULD SAY THAT TWO SEPARATE WINGS OF THE PARTY, THE PROGRESSIVE AND THE ESTABLISHMENT, COULD CLAIM VICTORY LAST NIGHT, FROM NEW JERSEY TO CALIFORNIA.

WHERE DO YOU THINK THE PARTY IS RIGHT NOW?

JUST WALK US THROUGH SOME OF THE WINS BOTH FOR THE PROGRESSIVE PART OF THE PARTY IN NEW JERSEY AND FOR SOME OF THE ESTABLISHMENT CANDIDATES AS WELL.

>> SURE.

WELL, LOOK, THE BIGGEST WIN SO FAR FOR THE PROGRESSIVE CAME WHEN JANET MILLS THE GOVERNOR OF MAINE DROPPED OUT BECAUSE SHE COULDN'T RAISE THE MONEY AGAINST GRAHAM PLATNER.

NOW, WE'LL SEE IF PLATNER CAN GET THROUGH IN THE FALL.

BUT THAT WAS OBVIOUSLY SIGNIFICANT EARLIER THIS SPRING.

LAST NIGHT IN NEW JERSEY YOU SAW SOME PROGRESSIVES WIN HOUSE PRIMARIES.

BUT AS YOU GO FURTHER WEST ON THE MAP AND YOU LOOK AT THE CANDIDATES WHO WERE RUNNING FOR THE DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION, OBVIOUSLY IN IOWA IN THE SENATE JOSH TUREK MUCH MORE OF A SCHUMER APPROVED CANDIDATE WINNING THE NOMINATION IN IOWA.

ROB SAND UNOPPOSED FOR GOVERNOR.

A REALLY PROMISING CANDIDATE FOR THE DEMOCRATS FOR IOWA GOVERNOR BUT SOMEBODY WHO CLEARLY IS OKAY WITH THE ESTABLISHMENT WING, IS NO PROGRESSIVE FLAME THROWER.

AND THEN IN CALIFORNIA IS THE MOST VIVID EXAMPLE OF THIS.

THE MAYOR OF L. A. KAREN BASS WHO AS YOU ALLUDED TO HAS GOT A REALLY FLAWED RECORD AS MAYOR.

AND EVEN HARDCORE DEMOCRATS AREN'T HAPPY WITH HER.

SHE STILL EASILY OUTPOLLED THE FAR LEFT CANDIDATE THERE IN THE MAYOR'S RACE.

AND THEN LASTLY IN THE GOVERNOR'S RACE IN CALIFORNIA TOM STEYER, A BILLIONAIRE, REINVENTED HIMSELF AS THE SORT OF DESCENDANT OF KARL MARX AND SORT OF A TRAITOR TO HIS CLASS, REALLY RAN FAR LEFT AND IS NOT GOING TO MAKE IT THROUGH TO THE FALL, IT DOESN'T APPEAR, AND XAVIER BECERRA, WHO'S A MUCH MORE CONVENTIONAL DEMOCRATIC PICK, BASICALLY BLESSED BY THE KIND OF SACRAMENTO DEMOCRATIC ESTABLISHMENT IS CLEARLY GOING TO BE THE DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE THIS FALL IN CALIFORNIA.

SO MORE WINS LAST NIGHT FROM THE ESTABLISHMENT THAN NOT, BIANNA.

>> AND THAT'S NOTWITHSTANDING THE AMOUNT OF MONEY THAT WENT INTO THIS RACE.

TOM STEYER IN PARTICULAR I THINK, WHAT WAS IT, A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILLION DOLLARS OVERALL THAT WAS SPENT HERE AND HE STILL WAS NOT ABLE TO -- >> THE CONSULTANT CLASS DOING PRETTY WELL AS ARE THE TV STATIONS IN CALIFORNIA THANKS TO TOM STEYER.

RIGHT.

>> YOU BROUGHT UP GRAHAM PLATNER, AND I THINK FOR OUR INTERNATIONAL VIEWERS IT'S IMPORTANT TO REMIND JUST HOW SCANDAL-RIDDEN HE HAS BEEN.

AS OF LATE THROUGHOUT HIS DEN ON THE MOMENTUM THERE.

DEFINITELY IN THE STATE OF MAINE, WHETHER IT'S PAST COMMENTS, TATTOOS, NAZI- AFFILIATED TATTOOS, AND MOST RECENTLY REPORTING HE SENT EXPLICIT MESSAGES TO WOMEN WHILE HE'S JUST NEWLY MARRIED AS WELL, HAS REALLY ROCKED HIS CAMPAIGN.

HE'S NOW AVOIDING MANY INTERVIEWS.

I THINK TODAY I SAW SOMETHING SUGGESTING THAT DESPITE ALL OF THESE SCANDALS THAT MAINERS STILL ARE SUPPORTING HIM.

COULD HE BE THE NOOSE AROUND THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY THAT PERHAPS KEN PAXTON IS FOR REPUBLICANS?

AND WHAT DOES THAT MEAN FOR DEMOCRATS' CHANCES IN THE SENATE?

>> YEAH, THAT'S A GOOD QUESTION.

I THINK THE QUESTION IS THERE WE HAVE TO SEE.

I MEAN, I THINK, AGAIN, IT'S THE ACCUMULATION, AS YOU ALLUDED TO, OF DIFFICULT STORIES AND CONNECTIONS.

THE OPPOSITION FILE, AS WE SAY, IS GROWING HEAVIER BY THE DAY.

WHAT ELSE IS OUT THERE?

ARE THERE UNEXPLODED MINES THAT ARE EVEN MORE DAMAGING FOR PLATNER?

I THINK RIGHT NOW HE COULD SURVIVE IN A REALLY ANTI-TRUMP YEAR IN WHAT'S PRETTY TRADITIONALLY A BLUE STATE IN WHICH COLLINS IS FACING PROFOUND STRUCTURAL CHALLENGES.

SENATOR COLLINS, THAT IS, THE REPUBLICAN.

BUT AGAIN, LET'S SEE WHAT ELSE IS OUT THERE.

BUT THIS IS WHY THE SENATE MAP IS SO IMPORTANT.

BECAUSE IF DEMOCRATS CAN'T COUNT ON MAINE, WHAT SHOULD BE THE EASIEST STATE LOOKING AT THE NUMBERS FOR THEM TO PICK UP, BOY, NORTH CAROLINA, OHIO, IOWA, TEXAS, AND ALASKA, YOU'VE GOT TO FIND FOUR FROM THAT LIST IF YOU CAN'T COUNT ON MAINE.

AND OHIO AND NORTH CAROLINA, OKAY.

OBAMA WON EACH OF THOSE STATES AT LEAST ONCE.

BUT YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT ALASKA AND TEXAS AND IOWA.

YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT PRETTY DARN RED STATES IN AMERICAN POLITICS.

AND IT'S POSSIBLE THIS YEAR BECAUSE TRUMP IS SO UNPOPULAR BUT THAT CREATES ENORMOUS CHALLENGES FOR DEMOCRATS ON THE MAP IF THEY CAN'T COUNT ON MAINE TO START.

>> YEAH.

JONATHAN, I'D LIKE TO FINISH BY JUST POINTING OUT A SEGMENT THAT YOU HAVE BEEN WORKING ON THAT I'VE JUST REALLY ENJOYED.

IT'S GOTTEN A LOT OF PICKUP ONLINE AS WELL.

AND THAT IS YOUR SERIES OF CONVERSATIONS AND MEALS WITH PLAYERS FROM BOTH PARTIES.

YOU SAT DOWN WITH PENNSYLVANIA GOVERNOR JOSH SHAPIRO.

YOU ASKED HOW HE'D STACK UP AGAINST WES MOORE OR GAVIN NEWSOM.

HYPOTHETICALLY, RIGHT?

BECAUSE ALL OF THEM ARE SAYING THEY'RE NOT EVEN FOCUSED ON 2028.

NO IDEA WHERE THAT KIND OF QUESTION OR IDEA COULD COME FROM.

BUT YOU TALKED TO HIM ABOUT BASKETBALL AND I WANT TO PLAY THIS CLIP.

>> DO YOU THINK THAT YOU WOULD BE COMPETITIVE?

I'M NOT SAYING YOU COULD TAKE THEM.

BUT WOULD YOU BE COMPETITIVE PLAYING PICKUP BASKETBALL AGAINST WES MOORE OR GAVIN NEWSOM?

>> I'VE NEVER PLAYED --DO THEY EVEN PLAY HOOPS?

I DON'T KNOW.

DO THEY?

>> THEY PLAYED IN HIGH SCHOOL, YEAH.

>> OKAY.

I DIDN'T KNOW THAT.

I MEAN, LOOK -- >> WOW.

YOU DIDN'T EVEN KNOW.

>> I DIDN'T KNOW.

BUT HERE'S WHAT I WOULD SAY.

IF I COULD KEEP WES OFF THE BLOCKS AND FORCE HIM TO SHOOT THREES, THEN I THINK I'D HAVE A SHOT.

>> BASKETBALL OF COURSE A FITTING TOPIC GIVEN THE START OF THE NBA FINALS TONIGHT.

>> EXACTLY.

>> WHAT ARE YOU LEARNING FROM THESE MEN, THEIR STRENGTHS, THEIR BLIND SPOTS, THEIR FOOD PREFERENCES?

>> WELL, THE SERIES IS CALLED "ON THE ROAD," AND YOU'RE NICE TO MENTION IT.

YOU CAN FIND IT ON YOUTUBE OR ON POLITICO.

AND THE IDEA IS THAT I TRAVELED THE COUNTRY AND I HAVE MEALS WITH POLITICIANS IN A ARE PRETTY CASUAL ENVIRONMENT.

WE DID PIZZA AND CHEESESTEAKS IN PHILLY.

WITH WES MOORE I DID CRAB CAKES.

WITH GAVIN NEWSOM DID SEAFOOD OUT IN SAN FRANCISCO.

AND THE HOPE IS YOU GET A MORE CASUAL REVEALING SIDE OF THEM.

BUT STILL A COMPETITIVE SIGH.

AS YOU JUST ALLUDE TO THERE WITH GOVERNOR SHAPIRO.

NOW, IT DOES COME WITH DOCTOR'S ADVICE.

IF YOU'RE WATCHING THIS YOU'RE GOING TO GET HUNGRY AND YOU'RE GOING TO SEE FOLKS EATING ON AIR, WHICH YOU DON'T ALWAYS SEE.

>> THERE'S AN ART TO IT.

>> THE FOOD ISN'T JUST A PROP.

WE'RE ACTUALLY EATING ON CAMERA.

DOES COME WITH A PG-13 WARNING THAT WE'RE GOING TO BE EATING ON THE AIR.

BUT LOOK, I THINK WE'RE LEARNING THESE GUYS ARE KPEEFTD.

COMPETITIVE.

A LOT OF THEM WANT TO RUN FOR PRESIDENT.

THEY DON'T WANT TO SAY IT AUGHT LOUD JUST NOW.

BUT THEY WANT TO SHOW A SIDE OF THEM THAT'S MORE ACCESSIBLE.

AND I THINK THEY UNDERSTAND THE WORLD IS CHANGING AND YOU'VE GOT TO DO SHOWS LIKE THIS THAT ARE A LITTLE BIT DIFFERENT AND THAT YES, DO SHOW GROWN ADULTS EATING ON CAMERA.

>> YEAH, THERE'S AN ART TO EATING A SLICE OF PEPPERONI PIZZA WHILE YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT HEALTH CARE AND FOREIGN POLICY.

JONATHAN MARTIN -- >> EXACTLY.

>> --GREAT TO HAVE YOU ON.

PLEASE COME BACK.

APPRECIATE IT.

>> THANK YOU.

> >> NOW, IN A MONTH'S TIME AMERICA WILL CELEBRATE ITS 250th BIRTHDAY.

BUT FOR MANY AMERICANS IT'S A DIFFICULT TIME TO CELEBRATE.

THE COUNTRY IS DIVIDED, STRAINED BY CONFLICT ABROAD, POLITICAL POLARIZATION AT ME AND ECONOMIC HARDSHIP FOR MILLIONS.

ON TOP OF THAT PRESIDENT TRUMP HAS PUT A PARTISAN STAMP ON THE PLANNED COMMEMORATIONS FROM A COIN FEATURING HIS FACE TO A GIANT MAGA RALLY.

SO WHAT EXACTLY DOES IT MEAN TORE A PATRIOT IN TODAY'S AMERICA?

TO EXPLORE THAT QUESTION OUR NEXT GUEST LOOKS BACK TO THE NATION'S FOUNDING, TRACING THE EVOLUTION AND CONTRADICTIONS OF ITS IDEALS.

IT'S ALL IN HIS NEW BOOK "TO LOVE A COUNTRY: THE PROBLEMS OF PATRIOTISM IN AMERICA. "

AUTHOR AND HISTORIAN DOMINIC ERDOZAIN JOINS ME NOW FROM ATLANTA.

DOMINIC, IT'S GOOD TO HAVE YOU ON THE PROGRAM.

CONGRATULATIONS ON THE BOOK.

I THINK IT DOES SEEM QUITE FITTING TO HAVE A BRIT WRITE A BOOK ABOUT AMERICA CELEBRATING ITS 250th ANNIVERSARY.

ESPECIALLY WITH THIS PRESIDENT IN OFFICE, I HAVE TO SAY.

HE REALLY HAS INSERTED HIMSELF JUST ABOUT IN EVERY FACET OF THIS CELEBRATION.

HE HAS FLOATED THE IDEA THAT HE'D HOST A GIANT MAGA RALLY NOW AFTER SOME ARTISTS DROPPED OUT OF WHAT THEY BELIEVED WAS GOING TO BE A NON-PARTISAN CELEBRATION.

CONGRESSMAN HAKEEM JEFFRIES WROTE THIS ON X. HE SAID, "GET OVER YOURSELF.

THE UPCOMING JULY 4th ANNIVERSARY IS NOT ABOUT A WANNABE KING.

IT IS ABOUT CELEBRATING THE AMERICAN JOURNEY. "

THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION CONSIDERS ANY SORT OF CRITICISM LIKE THAT UNPATRIOTIC.

SO WHAT KIND OF AMERICAN PATRIOTISM ARE WE SEEING IN TRUMP AND HIS SUPPORTERS IN YOUR VIEW?

>> WELL, THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR HAVING ME.

I TAKE YOUR PREVIOUS GUEST'S POINT ABOUT THE PARALLELS OF A BRITISH ACCENT.

SO I SHOULD TREAD CAREFULLY HERE.

BUT I THINK WHAT YOU JUST DESCRIBED THERE OF PATRIOTISM BEING KIND OF COMPRESSED INTO AN INDIVIDUAL IS KIND OF WHAT I MEAN BY THE PROBLEM OF PATRIOTISM AND THE PROBLEM OF A CERTAIN KIND OF EXCEPTIONALISM LEADING TO A KIND OF MERGING OF EGOISM WITH THE GREATNESS OF THE NATION.

AND IT'S SOMETHING THAT SOME OF THE EARLY FOUNDERS WARNED VERY EXPLICITLY ABOUT.

>> WHEN DOES THE HEALTH F LOVING A COUNTRY -- BECAUSE YOU'LL HAVE SO MANY PEOPLE SAYING THERE'S NOTHING WRONG WITH THAT, YOU'RE UNPATRIOTIC IF YOU DON'T LOVE YOUR COUNTRY.

WHERE DOES THAT VEER INTO DANGEROUS TERRITORY IF AT ALL?

AND WHAT DOES THAT SAY ABOUT THE CURRENT SOCIETY IF THAT'S IN FACT WHERE PARTS OF IT ARE VEERING?

>> YEAH, I THINK TWO PEOPLE THAT SPRING TO MIND, THERE'S A FAMOUS ESSAY BY GEORGE ORWELL WHERE HE TALKS --IT'S CALLED "NOTES ON NATIONALISM. "

HE TALKS ABOUT NATIONALISM AS KIND OF THE DISEASE OF THE MODERN AGE, THIS KIND OF WORSHIP OF THIS MAGNIFIED VERSION OF OURSELVES IN THE STATE.

AND HE SEES PATRIOTISM AS A POTENTIAL INOCULATION AGAINST THAT- S THAT IF YOU CAN LOVE YOUR COUNTRY WITHOUT WORSHIPING IS.

BUT THE PROBLEM IS IF YOUR VERSION OF PATRIOTISM IS A FORM OF EXCEPTIONALISM THAT SAYS WE'RE PREEMINENT THEN YOU'RE GOING TO TEND INTO THAT DIRECTION OF UNCRITICAL AFFILIATION.

ANOTHER PERSON WHO SPRINGS TO MIND IS THE HISTORIAN RICHARD HOFFSTATER WHO SAYS REALLY AS AN ASIDE IN ONE OF HIS REVIEWS SAYS IT'S BEEN OUR FATE AS A NATION NOT TO HAVE IDEOLOGIES BUT TO BE ONE.

AND WHEN YOU ARE THE IDEOLOGY IT CAN MAKE YOU A BLIND FOLLOWER, A KIND OF --IN A SENSE A SUBJECT RATHER THAN A CITIZEN.

>> ONE CRITICISM WE HEAR A LOT DIRECTED AT THE PRESIDENT OR AT REPUBLICANS FROM DEMOCRATS IS THAT THEIR YALTY IS TO THE CONSTITUTION, NOT TO ONE PARTY OR NOT TO ONE PERSON.

HOW DO YOU THINK THAT RESONATES TO MOST AMERICANS?

AND I'M JUST CURIOUS TO GET YOUR PERSPECTIVE.

HOW DOES THAT RESONATE TO THOSE AROUND THE WORLD WHO ARE WATCHING THE UNITED STATES CELEBRATE 250 YEARS?

>> YEAH, I THINK THAT IT'S IMPORTANT --YOU KNOW, I FIND MYSELF DEFENDING AMERICA A LOT TO MY KIND OF BRITISH FRIENDS AND FAMILY.

TO EMPHASIZE THE CURRENT KIND OF MAGA PHENOMENON IS NOT SYNONYMOUS WITH THE NATION.

BUT THIS IDEA -- ONE OF MY GO-TO PEOPLE IS JOHN ADAMS.

IN THE BOOK HE TALKS ABOUT AN EMPIRE OF LAWS RATHER THAN AN EMPIRE OF MEN AND THE IMPORTANCE OF FOLLOWING THE IDEALS AND THE IDEAS RATHER THAN OUR APPOINTED SPOKESMAN OF THE TIME, OUR TEAM.

THEY TALK A LOT ABOUT FACTIONALISM.

AND I THINK YOU KNOW, IT'S AGAIN BACK TO ORWELL.

ORWELL HAS THIS GREAT IDEA OF TRANSFERRED NATIONALISM WHEN A PARTY OR AN IDEOLOGY BECOMES THE AVATAR OR THE SYNONYM FOR YOUR NATIONAL SKPMZ THEREFORE SUPPORTING THE Y BECOMES YOUR WAY OF SUPPORTING THE NATION AND THE EFFECT IS YOU END UP UNDERMINING MANY OF THE VALUES AND COMMITMENTS OF THAT NATION.

>> AND NORMS OF THAT NATION AS WELL AS WE SEE IN REAL TIME.

THE TITLE OF YOUR BOOK, "TO LOVE A COUNTRY: THE PROBLEM OF PATRIOTISM IN AMERICA. "

YOU SEPARATE PATRIOTISM FROM FREEDOM.

I THINK A LOT OF AMERICANS WOULD ASSUME THEY'RE QUITE SIMILAR.

WHY DOESN'T THAT PERSUADE YOU?

>> I THINK THE RIGHT KIND OF PATRIOTISM COULD.

ONE OF THE MOTIVES FOR WRITING THIS IS -- WAS THE RESPONSE TO TRUMP'S PRESIDENCY AMONG LIBERAL INTELLECTUALS WHO TALK ABOUT RECLAIMING PATRIOTISM RATHER THAN, SAY, RETHINKING IT OR RE-EXAMINING IT IN A MORE FUNDAMENTAL WAY.

AND I THINK THAT FOR THE PEOPLE I'M --IT'S A HISTORICAL BOOK RATHER THAN A PHILOSOPHICAL TREATISE.

AND ONE OF THE PROCESSES YOU SEE IS THAT THE MORE PATRIOTIC PEOPLE ARE THE MORE THEY'RE INCLINED TO SACRIFICE THEIR LIBERTIES, THE FREEDOM OF SPEECH, THEIR FREEDOM NOT TO BE DRAFTED INTO AN ILLEGAL WAR, FOR EXAMPLE.

AND THIS IS SOMETHING THAT AUTHORIZE OEKS TALKS A LOT ABOUT IN CIVIL DISOBEDIENCE.

PATRIOTISM MAKES US PROUD BUT ODDLY LACKING IN SELF- RESPECT AT TIMES.

WE SORT OF SIGN AWAY OUR LIBERTIES WITHOUT THINKING ABOUT IT.

AND THAT KIND OF ABILITY TO THINK ON YOUR FEET.

ANOTHER ONE IF YOU'LL FORGIVE ONE MORE QUOTIZATION IS DWIGHT EISENHOWER IN HIS FAMOUS FAREWELL SPEECH HE WARNS ABOUT THE MILITARY-INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX.

HE SAYS WE NEED A KNOWLEDGEABLE AND ALERT CITIZENRY TO PROTECT OUR DEMOCRATIC PROCESSES AND TO PREVENT THE ENCROACHMENT OF THE MILITARY-INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX.

WHICH IS ABSOLUTELY RIGHT.

BUT THE KIND OF PATRIOT MDS HE PROMOTED AS PRESIDENT IS THE KIND THAT PUTS US BACK TO SLEEP.

>> I WANT TO ASK ABOUT ONE OF THE MORE PROVOCATIVE AND I THINK REALLY IMPORTANT -- OF COURSE IT'S ONE OF THE DARK CHAPTERS OF U. S. HISTORY.

AND THAT IS ON RACE.

AND YOU HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENSIONALISM IN PATRIOTISM HAS WORKED AGAINST RACE EQUALITY.

AND YOU QUOTE ABRAHAM LINCOLN HERE.

YOU SAY, "MUCH AS I HATE SLAVERY I WOULD CON SENTD TO THE EXTENSION OF IT RATHER THAN SEE THE UNION DISSOLVE.

JUST AS I WOULD CONSENT TO ANY GREAT EVIL TO AVOID A GREATER ONE. "

SO WHAT DOES THAT LINE REVEAL ABOUT HOW PATRIOTISM COULD IN FACT ENABLE HARM?

>> WELL, I'M GLAD YOU QUOTED THAT BECAUSE THAT'S THE CLEAREST SUMMARY OF THE ARGUMENT IN A WAY THAT YOU COULD BE CONCERNED ABOUT SOMETHING BUT IF YOU MAKE IT SECONDARY YOU'VE PERHAPS FORGET BENN IT OTTEN ABOUT IT OR NEGLECTED IT.

THAT WAS THE ARGUMENT OF PEOPLE LIKE WILLIAM LLOYD DOUGLAS, FREDERICK DUCK DOUGLAS THE ABOLITIONISTS.

YOU HAVE THE DECLARATION OF INDEPENDENCE THIS ASSERTION OF HUMAN DIGNITY AND EKE WAULTD AND THE RIGHT TO LIFE AND LIBERTY.

AND THEN YOU HAVE A CONSTITUTION THAT ALLOWS PEOPLE TO BE CLASSIFIED AS PROPERTY.

THEN YOU HAVE PATRIOTISM THAT PROTECTS THE CONSTITUTION THAT PREVENTS STRUCTURAL ANALYSIS, THAT PREVENTS STRUCTURAL RADICAL CHANGE.

FOR PEOPLE LIKE GARRISON TO BE A PATRIOT WAS TO RIVET THE CHAINS OF SO MANY ENSLAVED PEOPLE.

THE CLEAREST RHETORICAL VERSION OF THIS WOULD BE SOMEONE LIKE DOUGLAS HIMSELF SORT OF MOCKING THE PATRIOTS BY SAYING AND WHO WERE YOUR DADDIES, REFERRING TO THE FOUNDING FATHERS AS YOUR DADDIES.

TO SAY THAT JUST BECAUSE THEY MADE THIS COVENANT WITH DEATH IT DOESN'T MEAN WE CAN'T CHANGE IT NOW.

SO FOR THEM IT WAS A KIND OF COUNTERREVOLUTIONARY FORCE THAT SORT OF DENIED THE CORE IDEAS.

>> AND WHAT YOU DO IN THIS BOOK IS YOU HOLD UP PEOPLE LIKE JANE ADAMS, MARTIN LUTHER KING JR.

, GANDHI AS MODELS.

ALL THREE LOVED THEIR COUNTRIES WHILE BEING ABLE TO INDICT THEM AS WELL.

WHAT IS THE PRACTICAL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THEIR MODEL AS OPPOSED TO BLIND LOYALTY THROUGH AND THROUGH?

>> YEAH, WELL, I THINK THAT THE KEY THING FOR ME WITH EACH OF THOSE THINKERS IS THEY WERE DYNAMIC.

THEIR VIEW OF PATRIOTISM IS IT'S A MOVING THING, IT'S GOT TO CHANGE.

ADAMS IS SO --YOU HAVE ALL THESE ANTI- IMPERIALISTS INCLUDING PEOPLE LIKE MARK TWAIN AT THE TURN OF THE CENTURY, TURN OF THE 20th CENTURY WHO ARE CRITICS OF IMPERIALISM AND THEIR APPROACH IS VERY MUCH WHAT WOULD JEFFERSON DO HERE?

HE WOULDN'T BE INVADING THESE OTHER COUNTRIES.

WHEREAS ADAMS SAYS MAYBE WE NEED A LITTLE MORE THAN THAT, MAYBE WE NEED A MORE FORWARD- LOOKING PATRIOTISM THAT ISN'T LINKED TO MILITARISM IN ANY WAY.

SHE'S KIND OF BREEZY IN HER DISDAIN FOR THE GREAT GENERALS OF THE CIVIL WAR AND SAY WE NEED A DIFFERENT KIND OF MAN.

A COSMIC PATRIOTISM WHICH IS A BIT OF A COULDN'T RAH NTRADICTION IN TERMS BUT SHE DRAWS HER PATRIOTISM FROM THE DIVERSITY AND PLURALITY OF CHICAGO WHERE SHE FINDS HULL HOUSE AND MAKES IT ESSENTIAL TO HER PEACE ACTIVISM.

AND THE SAME WITH KING.

HE'S ALWAYS ING THE PROMISE BUT HE DOESN'T THINK THE CAR IS GOING TO DRIVE ITSELF.

HE FINDS TRADITIONAL PATRIOTISM TOO STATIC AND INVOKE TRI, WE'RE GREAT, WHEREAS HE SAYS WE HAVE TO BREATHE LIFE INTO THIS EXPERIMENT AND IT'S GOT TO HAPPEN NOW.

>> IT'S THAT FORM OF ENCOURAGEMENT BUT ENCOURAGEMENT THAT TAKES WORK AND REALLY GALVANIZING A MOVEMENT.

CHRISTIANE SPOKE WITH FORMER OBAMA ADVISER BEN RHODES, WHO'S ALSO WRITTEN A BOOK ABOUT AMERICAN HISTORY.

HE TRACES THE DIVISION, SOME OF WHICH YOU TALK ABOUT, BACK TO THE CONSTITUTIONAL -- THE CONSTITUTIONAL CONVENTION.

AND HE CITED A SPEECH BY BENJAMIN FRANKLIN IN PARTICULAR RALLYING SUPPORT FOR THE CONSTITUTION'S PASSAGE.

LET'S PLAY THAT CLIP.

>> YEAH, SO I WANTED TO UNDERSTAND WHAT'S HAPPENING NOW BY UNDERSTANDING THE HISTORY OF THE DEBATE WE HAD IN THIS COUNTRY.

AND I START WITH BENJAMIN FRANKLIN BECAUSE THE SPEECH THAT HE AUTHORED, THERE WAS A CLOSING ARGUMENT AT THE CONSTITUTIONAL CONVENTION, DID NOT DEFEND THE CONSTITUTION.

IT DEFENDED COMPROMISE.

IT SAID IN A BUNCH OF PEOPLE ARE GOING TO COME TOGETHER IN A ROOM WITH DIFFERENT INTERESTS, DIFFERENT VIEWS, DIFFERENT PREJUDICES, THEN WE ARE NOT GOING TO HAVE A UNION WITHOUT COMPROMISE.

THAT MADE THE COUNTRY POSSIBLE.

BUT IT WAS A STARTING POINT FOR THIS COMPETITION AND THIS CONFLICT WE'VE HAD EVER SINCE.

>> THAT SORT OF SPEAKS I THINK TO SOME OF THE LANGUAGE FROM ABRAHAM LINCOLN AS WELL.

RHODES ARGUED THERE WOULD BE NO UNITED STATES WITHOUT THOSE COMPROMISES.

DO YOU AGREE WITH HIM?

>> YES.

BUT I THINK IF YOU GO BACK TO THE CONSTITUTIONAL DEBATE YOU HAVE THESE THINKERS, THESE SKEPTICS WHO ARE KNOWN AS THE ANTI-FEDERALISTS WHO SAID YOU'VE GOT TO BE CAREFUL HOW FIRMLY YOU FORCE THESE THINGS TOGETHER.

IT'S ONE THING TO SAY WE HAVE DIFFERENCES.

IT'S ANOTHER THING TO SAY THAT GEORGIA WHERE I AM AND MASSACHUSETTS CAN BE BOUND INTO THE SAME UNITARY REPUBLIC.

YOU HAVE PEOPLE IN NEW YORK LIKE THE FEDERAL FARMER WHO'S ONE OF --THEY ALL HAVE THESE KIND OF FLAMBOYANT PSEUDONYMS.

SAYING THAT THIS IS LIKE A FORCED MARRIAGE AND IT'S GOING TO RESULT IN DIVORCE IF NOT CIVIL WAR.

IT'S ONE THING TO COMPROMISE BUT IT'S ANOTHER THING TO PUT POLAR OPPOSITES --YOU HAVE PEOPLE IN GEORGIA --SORRY TO BEAT UP ON THIS STATE.

BUT YOU HAVE ONE OF THE REPRESENTATIVES AT THE SECOND CONTINENTAL CONGRESS WHO SAYS THE PRINCIPLES OF REPUBLICANISM ARE THE PRINCIPLES OF DEVILS.

THEY HAVE NO INTEREST IN THE DEMOCRATIC EXPERIMENT.

AND A FEW YEARS LATER THEY FIND THEMSELVES IN A STATE AND THEY HAVE --IN A FEDERAL STATE AND THEY HAVE THE POWER TO VETO MANY OF THE THINGS PEOPLE IN NEW ENGLAND AND PENNSYLVANIA, FOR EXAMPLE, WANTED TO IMPLEMENT.

IT'S MORE THAN A FAILURE TO COMPROMISE.

IT'S -- WE'RE TALKING ABOUT IDEOLOGICAL POLARITIES OF SOME EXTREME WHICH WE'RE LIVING WITH STILL TODAY.

>> I FIND YOUR BACKGROUND SO FASCINATING AND I THINK GIVEN YOUR BACKGROUND AND ALL OF THE EXPERIENCES THAT YOU'VE HAD BEING RAISED IN BRITAIN, NOW LIVING IN GEORGIA AS YOU'VE NOTED, AS A PROFESSOR THERE, IN WRITING ABOUT THIS COUNTRY, YOUR PREVIOUS BOOK "ONE NATION UNDER GUNS," NOW ABOUT PATRIOTISM.

YOUR BACKGROUND I THINK REALLY BEARS THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THE POINTS YOU'RE MAKING HERE FROM THE EXPERIENCE YOU'VE HAD.

YOU SAID YOU FIND YOURSELF DEFENDING THIS COUNTRY ABROAD.

WHAT DID YOU LEARN IN WRITING THIS BOOK THAT YOU PERHAPS HAD YET TO KNOW ABOUT THIS COUNTRY WHEN YOU PRO YOUR PREVIOUS BOOK ABOUT GUNS?

>> YES.

I WAS VERY CONSCIOUS IN SO MANY ARGUMENTS, AND I HAVE A LOT, WHETHER IT BE ABOUT MILITARISM OR RACE OR ECONOMIC POLICY OR WHATEVER IT MAY BE, I CAME BACK AGAIN AGAIN TO MARTIN LUTHER KING JR.

, HE WAS SORT OF MY GO-TO PERSON, IN A WAY HE BECAME THE EXCEPTION THAT PROVED THE RULE.

AND I FELT THE WEAKNESS OF THAT.

AND WRITING THIS BOOK I FOUND THIS CAST OF CHARACTERS I DIDN'T KNOW EXISTED.

I ALWAYS HAD THIS PROBLEM WITH LINCOLN AND THE CIVIL WAR AND THE VIOLENCE OF RESOLVING THAT CONFLICT THROUGH WAR.

AND I FELT AI BIT OF A LOINER, I WAS ALMOST AFRAID TO DISCUSS IT.

STUDYING, IT GOING BACK TO THE PRIMARY SOURCES JUST FILLED ME WITH CONFIDENCE THERE ARE OTHER PEOPLE WHO THINK DIFFERENTLY.

I FEEL MORE AT HOME IN THE U. S. HAVING WRITTEN THE BOOK AND FELT THERE WAS THIS COMPANY OF WITNESSES I CAN BRING TO PLAY.

I THINK AS A SCHOLAR I'VE ALWAYS BEEN ON THAT SIDE -- SOME HISTORIANS ARE PURISTS, THEY DON'T BELIEVE ON APPLYING THEIR RESEARCH TO THE PRESENT.

BUT I'VE BEEN WITH E. B. THOMPSON WHO SAYS THE PAST IS ALIVE IT'S TEEMING WITH ENERGIES WE CAN BRING TO OUR SIDE AND THAT'S HOW I FELT WHEN I WROTE THIS BOOK.

>> YOU END THE BOOK ON HOPE RATHER THAN DESPAIR.

THAT'S QUITE AMERICAN OF YOU, I HAVE TO SAY.

YOU END IT WITH A COMMENCEMENT ADDRESS BY JOHN F. KENNEDY JR.

AT THE AMERICAN UNIVERSITY.

>> WHAT KIND OF A PEACE DO I MEAN AND WHAT KIND OF A PEACE DO WE SEEK?

NOT A PAX AMERICANA ENFORCED ON THE WORLD BY AMERICAN WEAPONS OF WAR.

NOT THE PEACE OF THE GRAVE OR THE SECURITY OF THE SLAVE.

I AM TALKING ABOUT GENUINE PEACE, THE KIND OF PEACE THAT MAKES LIFE ON EARTH WORTH LIVING.

>> IT DOES SEEM --AND I WANT TO MAKE SURE OUR AUDIENCE KNOWS YOU ARE OPTIMISTIC, THERE IS ROOM FOR OPTIMISM HERE AND A LOT OF WHAT WE KNOW NOW ABOUT THE COUNTRY STEMS FROM A LOT OF THE RESEARCH THAT YOU'VE BEEN ABLE TO PUT TOGETHER FOR THIS BOOK.

SO WELL DONE, DOMINIC ERDOZAIN.

THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR THE TIME.

GREAT TO HAVE YOU ON.

>> THANK YOU SO MUCH.

>> CONGRATULATIONS ON THE BOOK.

INCREDIBLE TIMING, WE SHOULD NOTE.

>> THANK YOU VERY MUCH.

>> NOW, HOPES FOR A DIPLOMATIC RESOLUTION TO THE WAR IN IRAN HAVE STALLED AFTER TENSIONS IN THE GULF FLARED AGAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

IRANIAN STRIKES ON KUWAIT HAVE CAUSED WIDESPREAD DAMAGE.

ONE PERSON WAS KILLED AND MORE THAN 60 WOUNDED IN THE ATTACK THAT HIT KUWAIT'S AIRPORT.

MEANWHILE, THE U. S. MILITARY CARRIED OUT ITS OWN STRIKES NEAR THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ.

IN A NEW PIECE FOR THE ATLANTIC FOREIGN POLICY SCHOLAR ROBERT KAGAN ARGUES THAT IRAN'S LEVERAGE IN THE STRAIT LEAVES THE U. S. WITH FEW OPTIONS.

HE EXPLAINS WHY TO WAURLTD ISAACSON.

>> THANK YOU, BIANNA.

AND ROBERT KAING, WELCOME TO THE SHOW.

>> THANK YOU.

>> THIS WAR IN IRAN HAS GONE ON FOR FOUR MONTHS NOW.

DOES IT SURPRISE YOU IT'S GONE ON FOR THAT LONG?

>> WELL, IN SOME WAYS IT HASN'T GONE ON THAT LONG.

IN SOME RESPECTS THE WAR ENDED IN MARCH AFTER THE ISRAELIS HIT THE IRANIAN OIL FIELD AND THE IRANIANS RETALIATE BID HITTING THE QATARI GAS INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX.

TRUMP ORDERED AN END TO ATTACKS ON IRANIAN ENERGY FACILITIES AND THEN WENT INTO A CEASE- FIRE.

AND REALLY NOTHING HAS CHANGED SINCE THEN.

TRUMP SAYS A MILLION THINGS ONE WAY OR ANOTHER HE'S GOING TO ATTACK, HE'S NOT GOING TO ATTACK, BUT IF YOU LOOK AT WHAT'S ACTUALLY HAPPENED IT'S CLEAR THAT TRUMP IS UNWILLING TO ESCALATE.

AND SO WE'VE BEEN IN THIS KIND OF SORT OF COLD WAR SITUATION WITH NOTHING REALLY HAPPENING FOR FOUR MONTHS OTHER THAN THE FACT THAT THE STRAIT HAS BEEN CLOSED.

>> WELL, OTHER THAN THE FACT THE STRAIT HAS BEEN CLOSED IS A PRETTY BIG OTHER THING.

WHAT HAPPENS THERE?

>> WELL, WE CAN CLEARLY SEE NOW WHAT THE FUTURE LOOKS LIKE.

IRAN IS IN CONTROL OF THE STRAIT.

THERE SEEMS TO BE NO PROSPECT THE UNITED STATES IS GOING TO BE ABLE TO OPEN THE STRAIT BY MILITARY FORCE.

TRUMP CLEARLY DOESN'T WANT TO DO THAT.

WHICH MEANS THE STRAIT WILL BE OPEN BUT UNDER NEW MANAGEMENT, IT WILL BE UNDER IRANIAN MANAGEMENT, WHICH MEANS THEY CONTROL WHO GETS IN AND WHO GETS OUT, HOW QUICKLY AND AT WHAT PRICE BECAUSE THEY'RE CERTAINLY GOING TO CHARGE FOR IT EVENTUALLY.

AND THIS GIVES IRAN ENORMOUS LEVERAGE IN THE REGION AND IN THE WORLD.

AND WE'RE ALREADY SEEING THAT LEVERAGE PLAYING OUT TODAY WITH THE CRISIS IN LEBANON AND HOW TRUMP IS HANDLING THAT.

>> SO WHAT SHOULD THE ADMINISTRATION DO OR WHAT CAN IT DO?

BECAUSE THIS SEEMED LIKE A PRETTY BAD STALEMATE OF AN OUTCOME.

>> I DON'T SEE ANY PARTICULAR OPTIONS.

I THINK WE HAVE ALREADY LOST THIS WAR.

IT'S JUST A QUESTION OF WHEN DO WE ACKNOWLEDGE IT?

TRUMP OF COURSE DOESN'T WANT TO ACKNOWLEDGE IT AT ALL, WHICH IS WHY WE'RE SORT OF IN THIS STASIS, SORT OF PARALYSIS RIGHT NOW.

BUT I DON'T SEE ANY OPTIONS FOR THE UNITED STATES.

THIS MISTAKE UNFORTUNATELY IS GOING TO BE A LASTING MISTAKE WITH LASTING STRATEGIC CONSEQUENCES.

>> IF THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ IS OPEN SORT OF UNDER NEW MANAGEMENT I THINK YOU PUT IT WITH IRAN SORT OF CONTROLLING IT, WHAT DOES THAT MEAN?

>> WELL, IT MEANS THAT THE POWER RELATIONSHIP IN THE REGION WILL SHIFT DRAMATICALLY.

I MEAN, BEFORE THE WAR BEGAN ISRAEL WAS BY FAR THE STRONGEST POWER IN THE REGION.

IRAN WAS DECIMATED, WEAK, ISOLATED.

AFTER THE WAR, WITH IRAN IN CONTROL OF THE STRAIT, IRAN IS GOING TO BE CALLING THE SHOTS.

YOU'LL SEE THE GULF STATES CUTTING DEALS WITH IRAN.

THEY'VE ALREADY BEGUN TO DO SO.

AND YOU'LL SEE IRAN EXERCISING INFLUENCE OVER ISRAEL'S BEHAVIOR AS IT IS DOING RIGHT NOW IN LEBANON.

IRAN WANTED AN END TO ISRAEL'S BOMBING OF BEIRUT.

THEY DEMANDED IT.

AND TRUMP CALLED UP BIBI NETANYAHU AND TOLD HIM TO CUT IT OUT.

THAT'S THE FUTURE.

ISRAEL'S GOING TO FIND ITSELF TREMENDOUSLY ISOLATED.

IRAN IS GOING TO BE IN THE POSITION TO HAVE LEVERAGE OVER COUNTRIES AS FAR AWAY AS JAPAN AND KOREA, WHO ARE OF COURSE UTTERLY DEPENDENT ON ACCESS TO THE ENERGY SUPPLIES TO THE GULF, WHICH IRAN WILL BE ABLE TO CONTROL THAT ACCESS.

>> LET ME SUMMARIZE WHAT I THINK YOU JUST SAID ABOUT WHERE WE STAND NOW IS THAT IRAN WILL EFFECTIVELY CONTROL THE STRAIT, ENRICHED URANIUM I ASSUME WILL NOT BE TAKEN OUT.

THEY WILL HELP CONTROL OF WHAT ISRAEL CAN DO IN SOUTHERN LEBANON.

AND THERE'S NOT BEEN A REGIME CHANGE EXCEPT TO A YOUNGER MORE RADICAL REGIME.

THAT SEEMS ABSOLUTELY UNACCEPTABLE.

IS THERE ANY ALTERNATIVE?

IS THERE ANYTHING THAT CAN BE DONE?

>> UNFORTUNATELY JUST BECAUSE SOMETHING IS UNACCEPTABLE DOESN'T MEAN THAT WE'RE NOT GOING TO HAVE TO ACCEPT IT.

AND AGAIN, LOOK, I SUPPOSE THERE IS SOME KIND OF WAR THAT THE UNITED STATES COULD FIGHT WHICH WOULD BE A MULTIMONTH WAR AT THE VERY LEAST, IT WOULD REQUIRE RISKING LOSING SHIPS IN THE STRAIT, WHEN YOU CONVOY IN A CONTESTED AREA YOU LOSE SHIPS.

IN ADDITION TO WHICH I DON'T THINK THE STRAIT WILL BE SAFE AGAIN AS LONG AS THIS REGIME IS IN POWER.

AND SO IF YOU REALLY WANTED TO I SUPPOSE SOLVE THE PROBLEM ALTHOUGH I'M NOT SURE WHAT KIND OF SOLUTION IT IS, YOU'D HAVE TO INVADE AND OCCUPY IRAN AND STAY THERE FOR A LONG TIME SO THAT YOU HAD A NEW REGIME.

AND I JUST THINK THERE'S NO WAY THE AMERICAN PEOPLE ARE INTERESTED IN DOING THAT AND I'M NOT EVEN SURE I'D RECOMMEND DOING THAT AT THIS POINT BECAUSE THE COSTS ARE GOING TO BE ENORMOUS.

WE HAVE TO ACCEPT THE FACT THAT THIS IS A LOSS.

WE'VE LOST IN THE PAST.

WE'VE LOST PREVIOUS WARS.

IN VIETNAM, OBVIOUSLY.

UNFORTUNATELY, THIS ONE AS MUCH AS WE'VE BEEN DISCUSSING, MUCH GREATER STRATEGIC RAMIFICATIONS THAN THE LOSS IN VIETNAM DID, ACTUALLY.

>> WELL, IF YOU'RE TRUMP AND YOU HEAR WHAT YOU JUST SAID, I THINK HIS INSTINCT --IT'S VERY HARD FOR ME TO KNOW --WOULD BE LET'S BOMB, LET'S HIT MORE TARGETS, LET'S DESTROY EVEN SOME INFRASTRUCTURE UNTIL THEY RELENT.

IS THAT A POSSIBLE APPROACH?

>> IT REALLY ISN'T.

AND I DON'T THINK HE --THAT'S NOT WHAT I'M GUESSING HE'S GOING TO DO.

WHAT HE WOULD LIKE TO DO IS HOPE THAT THE AMERICAN PEOPLE SOMEHOW CAN FORGET ABOUT ALL OF THIS.

HE'S TELLING --YOU KNOW, HIS LATEST STATEMENTS ARE RELAX, IT'S GOING TO TAKE TIME, IT ALWAYS WORKS OUT, HE SAYS.

AND I THINK HE WOULD LIKE TO CHANGE THE SUBJECT.

AND MOVE ON.

EVEN AN INCREASED BOMBING CAMPAIGN IS NOT GOING TO SOLVE THE PROBLEM.

WE BOMBED IRAN VERY EFFECTIVELY, IT SEEMED, FOR 37 DAYS WITHOUT CHANGING THEIR COURSE.

I DON'T KNOW WHAT THE OCCASIONAL TIT FOR TAT BOMBING IS GOING TO ACCOMPLISH.

IN ADDITION TO WHICH WE CANNOT SOLVE THE PROBLEM, WHICH IS AT THE HEART OF THIS, THAT WE CANNOT PREVENT IRAN FROM WREAKING UNTOLD DESTRUCTION ON ITS NEIGHBORS IN THE GULF AND ALSO, AND PERHAPS FROM THE WORLD'S POINT OF VIEW JUST AS IMPORTANTLY THE ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE.

SIRN CAPABLE OF DESTROYING INFRASTRUCTURE IN SUCH A WAY THAT IT COULD TAKE YEARS IF NOT LONGER, MAYBE EVEN A DECADE TO REPAIR, WHICH WOULD HAVE IMPLICATIONS FOR THE GLOBAL ECONOMY THAT ARE DISASTROUS.

>> HOW COME NOBODY COULD FORESEE, OR THEY DID NOT FORESEE THAT THIS COULD BE A TOTAL FIASCO THE WAY YOU'VE JUST DESCRIBED IT?

>> WELL, I THINK THAT IT SHOULD HAVE BEEN FORESEEN.

AFTER ALL, TRUMP IS NOT THE FIRST PRESIDENT TO FACE THE IRAN PROBLEM.

AND HE'S CERTAINLY NOT THE FIRST SORT OF HAWKISH AMERICAN PRESIDENT TO FACE THE IRAN PROBLEM.

BUT IF YOU LOOK AT THE DECISIONS MADE BY THE TWO BUSH ADMINISTRATIONS AND ALL THE OTHER DEMOCRATIC ADMINISTRATIONS, THEY ALL DECIDED THAT THIS WAS A THREAT.

I'M SURE THAT TRUMP'S MILITARY ADVISERSIZE AND MAYBE THE CIA WARNED HIM THAT THIS COULD HAPPEN.

THEY WOULD BE REMISS IN THEIR JOBS IF THEY DIDN'T.

BUT HE DIDN'T LISTEN BECAUSE HE'S DONALD TRUMP.

HE SAW A GLITTERING OBJECT BIBI NETANYAHU PRESENTED WITH A POSSIBILITY FOR A BIG WIN AND HE WILL GO DOWN IN HISTORY AND HAVE HIS HEAD ON MOUNT RUSHMORE FOR GETTING RID OF THE AYATOLLAH AND THE IRANIAN REGIME AND HE DIDN'T THINK TOO MUCH ABOUT DAY TWO OBVIOUSLY.

>> WELL, YOU SAID IT WAS AN OPPORTUNITY THAT PRIME MINISTER BENJAMIN NETANYAHU PRESENTED TO HIM.

TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU THINK THAT NETANYAHU PUSHED HIM INTO THIS?

>> I DON'T KNOW HOW HARD HE HAD TO PUSH.

BUT HE CERTAINLY ENTICED HIM INTO THIS.

IT'S CLEAR THAT HE CAME TO THE WHITE HOUSE AND RECOMMENDED THIS PLAN.

I MEAN, REPORTS ARE THAT PEOPLE LIKE RUBIO AND THE CIA DIRECTOR SAID THEY DIDN'T THINK THIS WAS GOING TO WORK AND TRUMP DID IT ANYWAY.

BUT IT'S CLEAR THAT THIS WAS AN ISRAELI IDEA, WHICH I'VE GOT TO SAY THE TRAGIC IRONY FROM ISRAEL'S POINT OF VIEW IS THAT I THINK THIS IS GOING TO TURN OUT TO BE THE BIGGEST SETBACK IN ISRAELIS' --BIGGEST STRATEGIC SETBACK IN ISRAELI HISTORY.

AND IT WAS DEFINITELY AN ISRAELI DECISION TO GO AHEAD AND DO IT.

>> YEAH, YOU TALK ABOUT IN YOUR PIECE THAT THIS WILL BE THE BIGGEST STRATEGIC SETBACK IN ISRAEL'S ENTIRE HISTORY.

EXPLAIN WHY.

>> WELL, JUST BECAUSE ISRAEL'S ARCH- ENEMY, WHAT ISRAEL CONSIDERS AN EXISTENTIAL THREAT, IS NOW IN A STRONGER POSITION THAN IT'S EVER BEEN BEFORE BECAUSE AS WE'VE BEEN DISCUSSING, BECAUSE OF ITS CONTROL OF THE STRAIT.

WHICH MEANS IT'S GOING TO BE ABLE TO MANIPULATE OTHER POWERS AROUND THE WORLD IN WAYS THAT IT WANTS.

SO IF ISRAEL DOES ANYTHING THAT IRAN DOESN'T LIKE IRAN CAN FORCE THE REST OF THE WORLD TO PUT PRESSURE ON ISRAEL.

AS AGAIN IS HAPPENING RIGHT NOW RIGHT BEFORE OUR EYES.

THIS IS THE FUTURE.

SO ISRAEL'S GOING TO BE HIGHLY CONSTRAINED ON WHAT IT CAN DO AGAINST HEZBOLLAH AND HAMAS IN GAZA BECAUSE IRAN WILL BE ABLE TO PULL THE STRING ON OIL AND GAS SUPPLIES IF ISRAEL DOES SOMETHING IT DOESN'T LIKE.

THAT'S A VERY WEAK POSITION.

PLUS ISRAEL IS NOW GOING TO BE MORE ISOLATED THAN IT'S EVER BEEN BEFORE BECAUSE IN ADDITION TO THE FACT THAT THE WHOLE WORLD IS NOW - -YOU LOOK AT THE U. N. SECURITY COUNCIL RESOLUTION YESTERDAY, IT WAS UNANIMOUS EXCEPT FOR THE UNITED STATES, AND SUPPORT IN THE UNITED STATES FOR ISRAEL IS AT THE LOWEST POINT I THINK PROBABLY IN ITS HISTORY.

NEITHER PARTY IS VERY PRO ISRAEL.

AND TRUMP --AND THIS IS IMPORTANT.

TRUMP IS NOW TURNING AGAINST ISRAEL.

HE MAY TURN HIS MAGA FOLLOWERS AGAINST ISRAEL TOO.

ANYONE WHO ASSUMES THAT MAGA IS DIEHARD SUPPORTERS OF ISRAEL AND CAN'T BE SHIFTED, IF TRUMP GETS ANNOYED WITH NETANYAHU, ARE MISTAKEN.

I JUST THINK ISRAEL'S GOING TO FIND ITSELF IN A VERY ISOLATED --ISRAEL'S USED TO BEING SOMEWHAT ISOLATED.

THIS IS MORE ISOLATED BECAUSE I DON'T THINK THEY HAVE THE UNITED STATES BEHIND THEIR BACK ANYMORE.

>> YOU PAINT A PRETTY DIRE -- VERY DIRE PICTURE OF WHAT IT MEANS FOR THE UNITED STATES' STRATEGIC INTERESTS AND ISRAEL'S.

IT ALSO SEEMS LIKE IT'S PRETTY DEVASTATING TO THE ATEGIC INTERESTS OF THE GULF STATES, THE SAUDIS, UAE AND OTHERS.

ARE THOUGH GOING TO JUST SIT BACK AND WATCH THIS HAPPEN?

>> WELL, THEY --WHAT THEIR RESPONSE IS GOING TO BE, THEY'RE GOING TO HAVE TO CUT DEALS WITH IRAN.

SOME OF THEM ARE ALREADY DOING IT.

OMAN IS WORKING WITH IRAN.

I SAW THE QATARI FOREIGN MINISTER TALKED ABOUT MAKING AT LEAST A TEMPORARY DEAL WITH IRAN.

THEY'RE GOING TO HAVE TO COME AROUND.

I DON'T KNOW.

THE UNITED ARAB EMIRATES SEEMS TO BE STILL SORT OF IN THE ISRAELI CAMP.

I DON'T KNOW HOW LONG THAT WILL LAST.

BUT THE OTHERS ARE NOT.

AND IT WAS PRETTY CLEAR AT LEAST FROM WHAT WE PICKED UP THAT THE SAUDIS IN PARTICULAR WERE NOT IN FAVOR OF THIS WAR.

THEY COULD SEE VERY CLEARLY OVER THE COURSE OF THE WAR THAT THE UNITED STATES PRIORITIZED ISRAEL'S DEFENSE OVER THE GULF STATES' DEFENSE.

I MEAN, LOOK, IF YOU'RE THE GULF STATES NOW YOU PUT ALL YOUR MONEY ON THE UNITED STATES.

THE UNITED STATES THEN INITIATED THIS WAR AT ISRAEL'S BEHEST AND THE WAR HAS BEEN DISASTROUS FOR THE GULF STATES.

DISASTROUS FOR THEIR ECONOMIES.

I DON'T SEE WHY THEY DON'T REACT TO THAT BY TURNING BOTH TO IRAN BUT ALSO TO CHINA, WHICH IS AN IMPORTANT PLAYER, AN INCREASINGLY IMPORTANT PLAYER IN THE REGION PARTLY BECAUSE OF ITS ALLIANCE WITH IRAN.

AND SO YOU'RE GOING TO SEE AN OVERALL SHIFT IN THE BALANCE OF POWER AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES AND ISRAEL AND TOWARD OTHER POWERS IN THE REGION.

>> THERE'S ONE THING I DON'T GET ABOUT THIS REALLY DIRE SCENARIO YOU'VE JUST PAINTED, WHICH IS IF THIS IS THE CASE WHY IS OIL SO CHEAP IN A WAY?

WHY ISN'T IT AT $150 A BARREL?

>> WELL, I'M NOT AN ENERGY EXPERT.

BUT I UNDERSTAND THAT IF YOU ACTUALLY NEEDED TO BUY --IF YOU NEEDED TO BUY A BARREL OF OIL TODAY IT COSTS SOMETHING LIKE $150 OR $140 BECAUSE THAT'S WHAT THE ACTUAL PRICE OF OIL IS.

THE OIL PRICES WE'RE LOOKING AT ARE OIL FUTURES.

AND I'LL TELL YOU ONE THING THAT DONALD TRUMP HAS BEEN AN ABSOLUTE GENIUS AT, AND HE GETS AN A-PLUS FOR IT, IS MANIPULATING THE MARKET AND MANIPULATING MARKET EXPECTATIONS.

AND WATCHING OIL FUTURE PRICES GO UP AND DOWN BASED ON WHETHER DONALD TRUMP SAYS THERE'S GOING TO BE AN AGREEMENT OR NOT HAS BEEN PRETTY AMUSING BECAUSE DONALD TRUMP HAS NOW PULLED THE LUCY AND CHARLIE BROWN FOOTBALL TRICK NOW ABOUT SEVEN TIMES.

THE MARKET GOES FOR IT EVERY SINGLE TIME.

SO THESE PRICES ARE NOT REFLECTIVE OF THE REALITY.

AND NOW YOU EVEN SEE MAJOR FIGURES LIKE EXXON TOP EXECUTIVES WARNING THAT THE INVENTORY LEVELS, THE WORLD OIL INVENTORY LEVELS, WHICH HAVE BEEN BASICALLY KEEPING SUPPLY GOING, THERE WAS A LOT OF OIL OUT THERE IN THE SYSTEM AND THEY WERE OF COURSE THE STRATEGIC OIL RESERVES OF VARIOUS COUNTRIES INCLUDING THE UNITED STATES, WHICH HAVE BEEN DRAWN DOWN HEAVILY.

I THINK JAPAN IS DRAWN DOWN AS FAR AS IT'S EVER BEEN.

AND WHAT THE EPIJI EXPERTS ARE WARNING IS WE'RE GOING TO HIT A POINT IN THE NEXT TWO OR THREE WEEKS WHERE THE INVENTORY IS REALLY GONE AND THAT'S THE POINT AT WHICH THEY'RE ANTICIPATING OIL PRICE SHOCKS.

SOME PEOPLE SAY $150.

SOME PEOPLE SAY $200 A BARREL.

AND WE'RE DEFINITELY TALKING IN ANY CASE ABOUT GAS PRICES IN THE UNITED STATES POTENTIALLY HITTING $6 A GALLON.

>> BUT ISN'T THAT WHAT THE FUTURE PRICE IS SUPPOSED TO REFLECT, WHAT PEOPLE THINK WILL BE HAPPENING A MONTH AND TWO MONTHS FROM NOW?

>> YES.

AND PEOPLE ARE MISTAKEN, UNFORTUNATELY.

I THINK PEOPLE ARE HAVING A VERY HARD TIME IMAGINING THE OUTCOME THAT WE'RE TALKING ABOUT HERE, WHICH IS WHERE THE UNITED STATES HAS JUST LOST.

AMERICANS --THERE'S A GREAT ASSUMPTION, I DON'T KNOW, IF YOU WATCH FOX NEWS AND YOU LISTEN TO A LOT OF TRUMP SUPPORTERS YOU'D THINK WE WERE WINNING THIS THING, WE'VE GOT IRAN ON THE RUN, IT'S JUST A MATTER OF TIME, WE'RE SQUEEZING THEM TO DEATH, WE'RE SUCH A BIG POWERFUL COUNTRY, AND THE ANSWER OF COURSE IS THE OPPOSITE.

BUT PEOPLE CAN'T IMAGINE A SITUATION WHERE WE'VE REALLY LOST CONTROL OF THE SITUATION AND THEREFORE ARE NOT GOING TO HAVE THE KIND OF AGREEMENT.

EVERYBODY'S ASSUMING THAT IT WILL GET BACK TO THE STATUS QUO AND THAT THE STRAIT WILL BE OPEN, LITERALLY OPEN.

BUT AS WE'VE BEEN SAYING, IT'S GOING TO BE OPEN BUT OPEN UNDER IRANIAN CONTROL, AND THAT'S GOING TO BE A DIFFERENT KETTLE OF FISH.

>> THE MAIN REASON WE GOT INTO THIS SITUATION AT FIRST, OR SO THEY SAID, WAS TO STOP IRAN FROM BECOMING A NUCLEAR POWER AND MAYBE EVEN GET THE ENRICHED URANIUM OUT.

NOW WE'RE JUST TALKING ABOUT CAN WE TRY TO GET THE STRAIT OPEN.

IS THAT --IS IRAN GOING TO BECOME A NUCLEAR POWER NOW?

>> WELL, FIRST OF ALL, IT'S LESS IMPORTANT NOW WHETHER THEY DO OR THEY DON'T BECAUSE THEIR NUCLEAR PROGRAM IS OF LESS UTILITY TO THEM AS A LEVER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM THAN CONTROL OF THE STRAIT.

THE CONTROL OF THE STRAIT IS LIKE A --IS GREATER THAN A NUCLEAR WEAPON.

BUT ON THE OTHER HAND THEY ALSO HAVE NO INCENTIVE TO MAKE ANY CONCESSIONS ON THE NUCLEAR ISSUE.

NOW, YOU KNOW, THEY HAVE BEENING A FOR DECADES THAT THEY HAVE NO INTENTION OF BUILDING A NUCLEAR WEAPON.

SO I'M WONDERING WHETHER DONALD TRUMP COULD HAVE THEM SAY THAT YET AGAIN AND THEN DECLARE VICTORY AND GO HOME.

HE'S GOT TO FIND SOME WAY TO DECLARE VICTORY.

SO IT'S POSSIBLE THEY'LL GIVE HIM THAT.

BUT THE REALITY IS IRAN IS NOT GOING TO MAKE ANY FUNDAMENTAL CONCESSIONS ON THE URANIUM OR ON ANYTHING ELSE.

>> LET ME ASK YOU THE BIG STRATEGIC QUESTION, WHICH IS WHAT DOES THIS DO TO AMERICA'S ALLIANCES AROUND THE WORLD AND TO WHAT EXTENT DOES THAT AFFECT OUR COMPETITION I'LL CALL IT WITH CHINA?

>> AND WITH RUSSIA I WOULD SAY.

THE WAR ITSELF TAKES PLACE ALREADY IN A CONTEXT OF THE UNITED STATES DESTROYING OUR ALLIANCE RELATIONSHIPS.

WE'RE PULLING OUR TROOPS OUT OF EUROPE.

WE'VE MADE IT CLEAR THAT WE ARE NOT GOING TO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PROVIDING SECURITY TO OUR ALLIES, WHICH HAS BEEN OUR MAIN MISSION FOR 80 YEARS.

SO THOSE ALLIANCES ARE FALLING DOWN.

AND IN ASIA TOO, WHERE WE HAVEN'T PULLED OUT, WE HAVE OVER THE COURSE OF THIS WAR DRAWN DOWN HUGE AMOUNTS OF MILITARY CAPABILITY WHICH ARE INTENDED TO DEAL WITH THE CHINA- TAIWAN SCENARIO OR ANOTHER KIND OF ASIAN SCENARIO.

SO EVERYBODY CAN SEE HOW WEAKENED WE ARE.

WHICH MEANS THAT COUNTRIES LIKE JAPAN ARE GOING TO HAVE TO GO THEIR OWN WAY.

ALL THAT WAS SORT OF IN PLACE.

THE IRAN WAR HAS EXACERBATED ALL OF THAT BECAUSE IN ADDITION TO US MAKING IT CLEAR WE'RE NOT GOING TO DEFEND OUR ALLIES, WE ALSO ARE NOT CAPABLE OF PLAYING THE ROLE THAT WE'VE PLAYED FOR 80 YEARS IN KEEPING, YOU KNOW, INTERNATIONAL WATERWAYS OPEN.

THAT WAS A MAJOR AMERICAN TASK.

IT'S ONE REASON WHY NATIONS IN THE WORLD DEPENDED ON US.

AND THEREFORE LISTENED TO US.

WE ALWAYS ARE UNHAPPY ABOUT THE DEGREE TO WHICH NATIONS DEPEND ON US.

BUT IT ALSO GIVES US ENORMOUS INFLUENCE.

THAT INFLUENCE IS GOING TO BE GONE AS NATIONS GO THEIR OWN WAY, AS WE PROVE WE ARE INCAPABLE OF FINISHING A WAR WE STARTED, AS WE PROVE WE ARE INCAPABLE OF DEALING WITH, BY THE WAY, A PRETTY LESSER POWER THAT WAS ALREADY VERY WEAK.

AGAIN, A LOT OF SORT OF --OF WAR BOOSTERS ON THE REPUBLICAN SIDE WERE BRAGGING ABOUT HOW MUCH DAMAGE WE'VE DONE AND HOW CHINA AND RUSSIA ARE GOING TO BE SCARED OF US.

I'M SORRY, THAT IS NOT THE LESSON OF THIS WAR.

THE LESSON OF THIS WAR IS THAT WE TOOK ON A VERY WEAK AND DAMAGED POWER AND HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO COMPLETE THE JOB.

I THINK THE WORLD IS GOING TO SEE WHAT THAT MEANS.

>> ROBERT KAGAN, THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING US.

>> THANK YOU.

>> AND FINALLY, HOCKEY HAS ENJOYED A SURGE IN POPULARITY THIS YEAR THANKS IN PART TO HIT SHOWS LIKE "HEATED RIVALRY. "

WHILE ICE HOCKEY CONTINUES TO GRAB HEADLINES, SOME PLAYERS ARE TAKING THE GAME TO NEW DEPTHS.

OUT OF THE RINK AND INTO THE POOL, AS YOU SEE HERE.

INVENTED IN ENGLAND IN THE 1950s, UNDERWATER HOCKEY HAS DEVELOPED INTO AN INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT WITH A DEDICATED FOLLOWING ACROSS THE GLOBE.

NOW THESE ENTHUSIASTS WHO PLAY FOR TEAMS IN THE UNITED ARAB EMIRATES HOPE TO TAKE IT EVEN FURTHER AS THEY HEAD TO THE ASIAN CHAMPIONSHIPS IN INDONESIA THIS AUGUST.

GOOD LUCK TO ALL PLAYERS.

AND THAT'S IT FOR OUR PROGRAM TONIGHT.

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JOIN US AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT.